Q2 GDP Growth

Next week, CSO will be coming out with its figures for GDP growth for the Indian economy in the second quarter. Nobody is looking forward to it.
A back of the envelope calculation - assuming agriculture growth at 3%, taking industry growth at 4.4% and believing that services could not have come in at less than 9% - leaves one with the amazingly low figure of 6.2% for the quarter. This is before the worst of the global economic crisis hit in October.
Agriculture remains a bright spot, and we should not ignore its demand impact on the rural population which has little to do with global developments. Bumper harvests are expected due to the good monsoons. [The massive Bihar floods unfortunately are below the monsoon performance radar, and most people have forgotten that millions remain unable to go back to their homes due to flood waters still not receded - but that is another blog]. Farmer credit will be a major problem going forward if the markets remain frozen in confidence.
Industrial growth has plummeted unbelievably low. Even CMIE has lowered its growth forecast, an institution that remained confident on the basis of corporate results that it monitors, quite forgetting that the unorganised sector is estimated to contribute over half of all output, including agricultural. It may talk about faulty IIP, but essentially, IIP is a wide-area survey and gives a good picture of direction.
Services, which contribute over half of economic growth, are the uncertain factor. We can keep all fingers crossed that it would not have gone lower than 9%, or even the 6.2% will appear too optimistic.
I firmly believe that the common man has greater economic savvy than the economic forecaster. So I would ask the vegetable vendor or the plumber about their opinions on life. If they grudgingly said 'okay' then GDP would come in at over 9%. If they launched on a rant against high prices and the Gorement, things were looking down. And if they wore an expression of stoic calm, things were really bad. Since I moved out of India, this ready reckoner is alas not available.
No, I certainly am not looking forward to 28 Nov