Economic fatigue...

Ok, so I was travelling, I was sick, etc. etc. But a blog is a commitment, come what may...My excuse for not writing for 2 months when so much was happening in India and the world is fatigue. After three days of being stuck to the Mumbai events, life became too depressing. Economic news heightened the depression.
The good news is that IMF has finally got its act together - it has come out with yet another outlook for the economy, and deciding this time that it was too much of a bore to keep going through the same exercise every alternate week, it finally brought out growth expectation figures that it can stick with for the next two years. From 2.2% in November, growth outlook is now 0.5% for 2009. Can it possibly get any lower?
For India, analysts from Economic Advisory Council to RBI and everyone inbetween have been gleefully concocting figures. The forecasts range from financial year 2008-09 to calendar year 2009 to financial year 2010-11. And some people even insist we should be happy about having elevated our minimum growth expectations from the Hindu rate of growth of 3.5% to 5%. Others point out that India will still grow faster than most other economies. But the outlook, whichever forecast one believes, is depressing.
The worst part is that RBI's moves do not make much sense. The Gorement of course has thrown up its hands which are tied behind its back due to past fiscal irresponsibility to criminal extent. Now relying on monetary policy, we find that RBI, after taking what it probably fondly imagines are revolutionary steps of lowering interest rates, has gone into 'wait and watch' mode. Nothing needs to be done at this stage, which is why we do not even need a finance minister. Good to know that the post is redundant even during the worst financial and economic scenario the world has seen in 70 years. Perhaps we can do without most other policymakers too.
The entire onus for growth stimulus now appears to have been placed on the rural population which policymakers think is sufficiently isolated to not be affected by unnecessary gloomy confidence complications. After all, monsoons have been good the past few years, agriculture has actually been expanding at 2-3%, loans have been waived, much has been spent on rural health and Bharat Nirman, with enough leakages to satisfy everyone. It's payback time for the rural folk now and they better return the favor!
As for me, I am going to crunch some figures.